Special Report Economic and Job Outlook in Post-Sept. 11 Recession Archived article from Mar 1, 2002   As the nation endures a recession and adjusts to the aftershocks of Sept. 11, workers and employers are facing an increasingly unpredictable workplace. Focus asked faculty members to provide their views on the economic and job outlook. 2002: A turnaround year By James W. Hughes and Joseph J. Seneca The early unfolding of 2002 found New Jersey deep in the economic trough as a result of a national recession that started in March 2001. This downturn stemmed from a fundamental cyclical adjustment exacerbated by the effects of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. During 2001, the state lost 14,500 jobs, a major swing from 1998-2000, when employment growth averaged a remarkable 87,000 jobs per year. A vigorous job-creating economy was transformed into a job-devouring economy. This year, New Jersey and the nation will certainly begin recovery. But the key questions are exactly when and how strong it will be. Historical averages provide one guideline. The average post-World War II national recession lasted 11 months. Since the national downturn started in March 2001, an "average" recession would be finished by February 2002. The longest postwar recession was 16 months. Replicating that experience would see the recession end in July 2002. So based on postwar history, the national recession should end sometime between February and July, with New Jersey tracking the nation quite closely. Recently, there have been a number of national economic indicators released for 2002 that suggest a recovery starting closer to February than July. But this does not mean a quick return to tight job markets. The rates of growth that characterized the second half of the 1990s are unlikely to return. Nationally, that spectacular growth was the result of an extraordinary set of economic circumstances. But the tombstone was set in place last March, marking the end of a remarkable period, with 9/11 and the Enron debacle further changing the world since then. Thus, the postrecession world is likely to be one of much more modest long-term growth because of these shifts. And this will be true in New Jersey as well, with the boom years of 1998-2000 rendered a fond memory. Nevertheless, our state's balanced economy and high-value-added, well-educated employment base will serve as a firm foundation for a good economic recovery. James W. Hughes is dean of the Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy; Joseph J. Seneca is university vice president for academic affairs. Career advice: Networking is crucial By Richard L. White On Jan. 24 Federal Reserve Chair Allan Greenspan told Congress that the recession was already in its final phase. That was certainly good news for Wall Street. But I believe the outlook is not so rosy on Main Street. Main Street actually came to the New Brunswick campus Jan. 4, when Career Services hosted our biannual, statewide New Jersey Collegiate Career Day. Our previous record attendance at this event was 3,100 candidates, set last May as storm clouds were just beginning to swirl above the job market. We anticipated an upturn in candidates, so we printed 3,500 employer directories. Lo and behold, more than 4,700 smartly dressed job seekers swarmed into Brower Commons and the Rutgers Student Center to speak to 178 employers. Is Mr. Greenspan's picture or this Rutgers snapshot more reflective of the reality of the job market? It's probably a little bit of both, but the encouraging national economic numbers may not translate into lots of good job prospects for the class of 2002. As we tell our students, it takes a lot of work to get work, especially in this job market. Our good old-fashioned advice is more relevant than ever--do a lot of networking with friends, neighbors, local merchants and college alumni; start the process early; and use a multifaceted approach to finding a job, including career fairs, the Internet, on-campus interviewing and volunteer work. Hopefully things will improve this spring. Stay tuned--on May 29 the New Jersey Collegiate Career Day will return to Rutgers, and we hope for more employers and a reduced number of anxious job seekers. Richard L. White is the director of Career Development and Placement Services. Skilled workers may apply By Carl E. Van Horn The Heldrich Center's new national survey of American employers, conducted in partnership with the Center for Survey Research and Analysis at the University of Connecticut, finds that some American employers --particularly larger employers -- are concerned about the effects of Sept. 11 and threats such as anthrax, but that as a nation our employers are far more worried about the state of the economy and how the availability of skilled workers will affect their businesses. The implications of the report, "Standing on Shaky Ground," are that working Americans can take little for granted in the current economy and should seek to keep their skills razor-sharp. Employers adjusting to the new economic climate expressed a high level of concern over economic issues, and many are considering worker layoffs as a strategy to insulate their business. At the same time, employers continue to face the challenge of finding skilled, qualified workers. Nearly half of all employers said it was difficult to find qualified workers in the past year and close to a third believe they will experience difficulty in the year ahead. Yet many employers express reluctance to pay for or provide continuing education and training for their employees. For job seekers and college graduates evaluating the job market, the report underscores a story heard over and over again in the center's multiyear Work Trends project. Employers need skilled workers, but most believe the responsibility for acquiring work-related skills and training rests in sole or large part with each individual worker. When it comes to acquiring the training and skills individuals need to compete for good jobs, employees must be proactive and self-reliant. Now more than ever, employers are hiring and promoting those who have acquired the education and skills demanded in today's competitive workforce. Carl E. Van Horn is the director of the John J. Heldrich Center for Workforce Development. Supply chain still growing By Lei Lei The current economic downturn is bad news to many in business. The M.B.A. Career Services office has registered an increased number of calls from alumni who are between jobs. They represent a wide range of industries including finance, communications and entertainment. But the same dynamics that are putting some out of work are creating an increased demand for others. Corporate recruiting is strong within the school's supply chain management program. Any company that deals with physical goods utilizes supply chain operations to get its products to customers. Additionally, consultants, distribution firms and other companies that exist to service manufacturers all have a need for graduates with this type of management expertise. And this is not likely to change anytime in the future. Even when the economy improves, which it inevitably will, Wall Street will continue to pressure firms to increase profits. When it does, companies will look to their supply chain managers to respond. Lei Lei is an associate professor of supply chain management at the Rutgers School of Business-Newark and New Brunswick. Pizza, with cheese, please By Eileen Appelbaum The labor market is likely to remain sluggish through 2002 as a slow recovery makes it difficult for the job market to offset productivity growth and absorb new workers. The possibility that this continued weakness could undo the gains for employees brought about by the tight labor market of the latter 1990s is impossible to ignore. The boom did many good things for workers, like boosting wages. It also encouraged employers to offer programs that help employees achieve a better balance between their responsibilities at work and those at home, part of companies' increased efforts to attract the most talented workers. But with restructuring and layoffs in high gear, these programs are in danger of vanishing. Work-life programs fall into two categories: those that substitute for the lack of a full-time caregiver, like subsidized day care and concierge services; and those flexibility practices that allow employees some control over the scheduling and location of their work. Both of these were useful recruiting tools in the tight labor market. But employee flexibility also has the advantage, when done right, of improving process efficiency for companies by better matching employees' schedules to changes in demand. As the economy has slowed, most companies have chosen to maintain existing work-life practices, recognizing after Sept. 11 (in the memorable phrase of Gordon Bethune, CEO of Continental Airlines) that "now is not the time to take the cheese off the pizza." But the economic situation also gives managers an opportunity to act strategically by adopting or expanding flexibility practices to facilitate the voluntary modification of work schedules and to smooth adjustments to slower growth without compromising performance. Employee flexibility, highly valued by employees, is a strategy that also yields rewards to managers -- in all economic climates. Eileen Appelbaum is the director of the Center for Women and Work, School of Management and Labor Relations. The anxiety of job loss By Julia Turovsky It's 2 a.m. You lay awake, thoughts racing, muscles tense, mouth dry, a lump in your throat that you can't swallow away. A million what-ifs race through your mind. "Don't think about it," you say to yourself. "Forget it for now, just go to sleep." But you can't. For many Americans, terms like unstable economy, downsizing, budget cuts and a depressed stock market translate to sleeplessness, worry and anticipated job loss. Unemployment is a state of being that is highly stressful and anxiety-ridden for most people. We often define ourselves by our profession. Work is central to self-esteem and personal satisfaction. We use it to evaluate how well our lives are going. The question "What do you do?" often follows "What is your name?" in many social contexts. How do you answer that question when you are not working? Unemployment also brings more pragmatic worries. Paying bills, keeping your home and sending your kids to college can suddenly become insurmountable tasks. Feelings of uncertainty, risk, helplessness and emotional exhaustion can lead to a state of overwhelming anxiety, making the idea of seeking new employment all the more daunting. To make the anxiety of unemployment more manageable and productive, try these tips: Stay active and increase rather than decrease your activities: exercise, socialize, talk, walk, laugh Create a plan of activities in a stepwise fashion that are necessary for future employment Limit worrying about the future to a particular time and place, such as the dining room table from 6 to 7 p.m., and try to postpone worrying during other times Finally, accept the anxiety. This is a hard time; it's supposed to feel uncomfortable. You don't have to "get rid of it." The reality is that unemployment is a common and survivable phase of life. Learning to tolerate and manage difficult events in life is psychologically healthy and can even help "immunize" against future stressors. Julia Turovsky is the associate director of the Anxiety Disorders Clinic, Graduate School of Applied and Professional Psychology. When workaholics are unemployed By Gayle Porter Downsizing takes its toll on both the workers who were laid off and the workers left behind. One type of employee is particularly hard hit -- the workaholic, whose self-identity is tied almost exclusively to her or his job. Depression, anger and an intense drive to get things "back to normal" are reasonable responses for anyone suddenly left without a job. Yet, once the shock has passed, many people might also realize they have a rare, short-term opportunity to see their children a little more, have breakfast with a spouse and do a few of those household tasks forever put on hold under normal conditions. Not so with the workaholic, whose loss of job has removed the one lens through which to realize feelings of personal self-worth. Suddenly without a job, the workaholic feels adrift and is driven to reimmerse in some comparable activity. Family and friends previously neglected for work are now similarly neglected for pursuit of work. A workaholic remaining on the job after layoffs may complain about the now impossible demands to cover more work. However, the situation creates a perfect justification for the unending need to work in the belief that "I'm the only one who can possibly take care of these problems." Workaholics thrive on crisis. Workaholism is not substantively different from any other addiction. Unfortunately, many companies encourage workaholic behavior, believing the organization benefits from an employee's long hours and excessive involvement. Managers holding this belief fail to realize that a workaholic's behavior has a downside. It distorts interpersonal relationships, destroys trust and likely creates as many problems as the overworked "victim" professes to solve. Managers must start looking below the surface and recognizing that employees with more balanced lives contribute as much, or more, to the organization. Gayle Porter is an associate professor of management at the School of Business-Camden. Rays of hope By Milton Leontiades Predicting the future of the economy is a practice that can test the abilities of any fortune-teller, but current indicators offer rays of hope for a rebound that will lift both the nation and the state. During the Jan. 16 session of the Quarterly Business Outlook conference sponsored by the School of Business-Camden, a panel that included the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and three prominent business leaders offered its testimony that both the nation and southern New Jersey are poised precariously on the brink of a rebound from recessionary times. Optimism must be restrained, however, as threats to economic recovery loom as large as opportunities. None of these business leaders predicted worsening conditions during the coming six months; indeed, the consensus is that a recovery should be in full swing by late summer. Dr. Anthony Santomero, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, offered his prediction that the regional and national economies will begin their recoveries in earnest by the summer, provided that a bevy of risks don't derail the engine before it picks up steam. Fear of consumers retrenching their spending habits could threaten the recovery, as could continued overcapacity in the telecommunications industry. As a result of the state's evolution from a manufacturing to a ser-vice-based economy, New Jersey is tracking closely with the national economic picture -- a notable difference from the 1989-90 recession. Job growth, therefore, can be anticipated in such areas as the pharmaceutical industry, which is one of the state's fastest-growing sectors. Media coverage of the dot-com implosion notwithstanding, Dr. Santomero also reported that New Jersey seems committed to building its base of high-tech entrepreneurs, which would help the state to participate in growth in the technology sector. In addition, world events have positioned the state's defense industry for growth. Michael Camardo, executive vice president of Lockheed Martin Technology Services, anticipates that employers Lockheed Martin, Computer Sciences Corporation and L3 Communications will increase their South Jersey workforces by 5 to 10 percent during 2002. In the real estate industry, warehousing and distribution networks offer opportunities for expansion, especially in conjunction with Internet retailing. Southern New Jersey's proximity to 60 million consumers within a one-day drive -- coupled with excellent transportation routes -- makes it an ideal hub for regional distribution. The opportunity for job growth in this area may surprise skeptics. Milton Leontiades is the dean of the School of Business-Camden.

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