The Shape of Society
Archived article from Nov 5, 1999
By Douglas Frank
Societal issues of the 20th century -- decaying cities, pockets of poverty, suburban sprawl -- won't miraculously disappear with the flip of the calendar to the year 2000. And new challenges and opportunities brought on by shifts in the economy and changing demographics will also need to be addressed as the new millennium begins.
Focus recently asked some Rutgers experts to speculate about the likely evolution of American society in the next century.
Interviews by Douglas Frank
Life in the cities Steven Diner, dean of the Faculty of Arts and Sciences, Rutgers-Newark
I see two major trends reshaping the cities: dynamic revitalization of downtown areas attracting the middle and upper middle class on the one hand, and the intractable nature of urban poverty on the other. The real question for the future is how these two will coexist.
The middle-class revitalization can be of great benefit to the poor by raising the tax base and making better city services possible. But it can also result in displacement of poor people and their further isolation, especially in the public schools, which are generally not much affected by the growth of a middle-class population.
I think the middle-class revitalization will continue for some time. Cities will play an increasingly important role in international commerce, government, public policy, the arts, the mass media, entertainment and other economic growth areas. The very density of the central city makes it appealing to pedestrians, creating the street life that draws people downtown. College graduates who have spent all of their lives in relatively homogeneous suburbs are being attracted to the excitement and diversity of urban life. The later age at which middle-class people marry and have children is vastly increasing the number of adults interested in living in the central city.
I'm not sure whether this will help, hurt or be a matter of indifference to the poor and the underclass. Much of that will depend upon public policy.
The face of society
Virginia Yans, professor of history, Faculty of Arts and Sciences-New Brunswick
According to recent U.S. census data, more than half of the population in major urban areas of the United States will be foreign-born before the middle of the next century. There are already such pockets in California and Florida. Miami, which boasts more than 50 percent Spanish speakers, has come to resemble in looks and in experiences an outpost of Latin America as not only Cubans but people from other places like Brazil are attracted to the area. It's fascinating; the whole flavor of the city has altered. New Jersey is another state that will have entire metropolitan areas that are going to have more foreign-born than native people.
We have, for the first time, approached and exceeded the great turn-of-the-century European migrations in terms of numbers of immigrants entering annually. New immigration policy is making up for restrictions on Asian immigration in the early part of the century. And while the majority of our population is still of Irish and German descent, changes will be happening very quickly as more and more Latin Americans and Asians immigrate and bring their families. The so-called European elite will continue to control most of our major institutions, but, in the business world, who know what's going to happen?
Planning cities
Anton Nelessen, associate professor of urban planning, Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy
In my private consulting practice, I have virtually abandoned working on open spaces and have turned my attention inward to the cities. I am not alone. At a recent conference of some 900 planners and others concerned with urbanism, it was clear that while many are still planning suburban neighborhoods, the emphasis is on the retrofitting of existing cities. The current trend shows that people below age 29 and above 52 are now ready, willing and able to deal with a more intensive urban lifestyle. It's what they want.
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